Leafs Make a Big Splash

 

So, it was 10:50 pm and I was about to call it a night when I get a phone call from my good friend Jackson, readers have seen his name mentioned before on this blog as he was the one who helped me get this off the ground. He called to tell me Kyle Dubas had done it again, In a three-team trade which I will try my best to break down and explain, the Leafs with the trade deadline two weeks away decided not to wait and Kyle Dubas pulled the trigger and acquired Noel Acciari and Ryan O’Reilly. For me, the crazy thing is last November as Jackson and I were driving to the Leaf’s game at home against Vancouver while the fanbase was panicking wanting to dismantle the entire team and start fresh Jackson and I were thinking not only would the team be just fine but we also discussed what moves Dubas could make when it was necessary. Well, Jackson without hesitating, and I reminded him of this while on our call but he said “Toronto will add Ryan O’Reilly at the deadline if not earlier”. Hearing that I answered probably as most fans did at the time, but my response was “I’d love that but you’re insane”. That was well before Ryan and the Leafs were mentioned in any possible trade talks by the way. Well, fast forward to February 17^th and Ryan O’Reilly is a Toronto Maple Leaf.   

 

So how does this trade break down? This is where I’m going to do my best to break it down because there are many pieces to this trade but here it goes. The Toronto Maple Leafs trade Forwards Mikhail Abramov and Adam Gaudette along with a package of draft picks that are as follows. Toronto’s 1^st round pick in 2023, a 3^rd Round Pick in 2023 that once belonged to Ottawa, and Toronto’s 2^nd Round Pick in 2024. In return, Toronto gets Ryan O’Reilly with 50% Salary retention, but they also get Noel Acciari. That’s not all because the third team in this trade is the Wild of Minnesota. They traded forward prospect Josh Pillar and agreed to retain 25% of O’Reilly’s remaining salary in exchange for a 2025 4^th Round pick from Toronto.

So, for a bundle of draft picks and two minor league players, Dubas could get 75% of Ryan’s salary retained. Ryan’s original cap hit was 7.5 million dollars but after this, it drops down to 1.875 million dollars. With Noel Acciari add his salary comes in at 1.25 million dollars the total combined cap hit is 3.125 million dollars.

Leaf fans in the weeks leading up to the deadline told me many times that Dubas needs to take a big swing to hopefully give the Leafs the boost he and the team desperately need to hopefully go on a multi-round run in the postseason. Now, let’s look at what the Leafs get in these three players.

Josh Pillar:

Josh is a 21-year-old Center currently playing this season with the Saskatoon Blades of the WHL where in 13 appearances he has collected 12 points elite prospects have Pillar projected to finish this season with 26 points in 28 games played. Admittedly I don’t know too much about this player simply because I don’t have access to Saskatoon Blade games and while I am writing this I can’t find much on him concerning scouting reports but from what I can find of him he stands five foot ten and weighs in at 172 pounds, he may not have the height that many teams would like but he does have twenty minutes in penalties so far so he does show signs of grit in his game. I think we will see Pillar play next season with the Marlies likely in their bottom six forward group, giving him time to adjust to hockey at the AHL level.

Noel Acciari:

Leaf fans should be very familiar with this player because we had watched him be a thorn in the side of not only the Leaf players but the fans as well during his years in the postseason with the Bruins as he was always able to get under the skin of the Leaf players thanks to his physical play. Noel this season has 18 points in 54 games with the Blues but has collected 168 hits before the trade. For the last few years as fans suffered through numerous first-round eliminations, there was a constant request for more toughness and physicality added to the lineup for the playoff runs. Well, Noel does just that because trust me when I tell you that Leaf fans will quickly fall in love with his style of play. One important thing that Acciari brings to this lineup is some much-needed postseason experience. Fans will also look at Noel’s stat line, see the 18 points, and think the production isn’t there. Well, Noel is a recent 20-goal scorer and so far, this season he has 10 goals. That’s 10 goals on a Blues team that is tearing things down for the purpose of a rebuild. Where Noel will slide into this Leaf line up I am not exactly sure because I’m not Sheldon Keefe I’ll give my thoughts on where I think he goes later in this article but I think it’s a safe bet to think that Acciari’s point total will climb playing on this talented Leaf roster.

Ryan O’Reilly:

The centrepiece of this trade, what he brings to the Leafs is again some playoff experience as he’s captained the Blues to a Stanley Cup Championship. He also brings some grit and physical play to the lineup as well. This season his numbers don’t look pretty but again St Louis is rebuilding for their future and yes he has dealt with injuries but seriously who hasn’t suffered an injury.? I know fans will look at that and think that this trade is another Nick Foligno situation where Kyle traded for damaged goods, but it was noted on the locked-on Leafs podcast that the host had a conversation with former Blues player Cam Jansen where Cam said that there is a big difference between a broken foot that Ryan had compared to a back injury that Foligno suffered with. A broken foot will heel in the 6-week window whereas a back injury can linger and if not treated properly a back injury can reaggravate itself self-many times very easily. Ryan O’Reilly so far this season has just 19 points thanks to 12 goals and 7 assists. Most Leaf fans will see those numbers and think Kyle has lost his mind but you’re forgetting that compared to previous years where Ryan was surrounded by players who could help with the production, this season is a very different story because he has had the likes of one time Leaf Josh Leivo, and Jake Neighbours. That is of course said with no disrespect to those two players but they simply don’t compare to what talent he will be lined up with now in Toronto. If Leaf fans are wondering what O’Reilly’s production has been like since returning from injury? In his last five games with the Blues, he collected 3 points, so it looks like the consistent point production is returning just in time to join his hometown team.

 

What do the Blues get in return for this trade?

Adam Gaudette:

Adam has spent this season as a member of the Toronto Marlies and in 40 games Adam is a 20-goal scorer and has 34 points this season in the AHL. Adam brings his 6 foot 1, 190-pound frame will bring some size into the Blues lineup and will surely see some time with the Blues. he’ll likely play his heart out with the hope of earning a new contract as he is an RFA this summer.

Mikhail Abramov:

Mikhail is a 21-year-old forward whom this season with the league-leading Toronto Marlies had collected 16 points in 34 games played. I haven’t watched any Marlies games so far this season because I don’t have access to the games but personally, 16 points so far is a respectable amount for a young forward and this player will no doubt be a piece of the Blues’ future as they hope he manages to break through and produce at the NHL level.


Final Thoughts:

Where do I think Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari will slot in on this Leaf’s lineup? For me, this is the fun part of breaking down trades when a team adds a player or in this case players. For me, I think Noel Acciari steps onto the Leafs third line and with the grit he brings, with his 168 hits, I would think this means that someone like Pierre Engvall could be sent out in another coming trade simply because Engvall doesn’t bring what Acciari does. Although while looking at the Leaf lines from their Wednesday night win against Chicago Noel could also take Joey Anderson’s spot on the 4^th line. This would allow Joey to be sent back to the Toronto Marlies where he could play a more productive role with the farm team. Ryan O’Reilly for me simply slides into the third-line center spot and yes, I know that is where Alex Kerfoot usually plays but O’Reilly is a much better center than Kerfoot is and really the Toronto Maple Leafs down-the-middle look unbelievable down the middle of the ice. The center group now is for me at least goes as follows, Matthews 1^st line Tavares 2^nd line O’Reilly 3^rd and Kampf/Holmberg on the 4^th. The Toronto Maple Leafs on Friday night when the trade went down is a much better team than they were on Wednesday when they faced off against the struggling Chicago Blackhawks.

Simply put I am very happy with this trade by Dubas that literally came out of nowhere, do I think Kyle is done? No, I still think Kyle will go and strengthen his blue line by adding a depth defenseman. After adding two forwards I think you’ll see Kerfoot and Engvall moved because both are free agents in need of a new deal come July 1. If Dubas moves the two forwards I named for draft picks, that would roughly free up 5.75 million dollars. Of course, trading those two is speculation but the Leafs will need to move a contract or two out because they need cap room to add a defenseman if that is in fact Kyle’s plan, but they will also need some cap room to sign Matthew Knies once his NCAA season comes to an end and hopefully that is after he leads his school to an NCAA Championship.

Word is at some point Saturday morning Kyle Dubas is going to speak to the media and all I can say is I am going to do my best to catch it because I think we will get an idea as to whether he will attempt to make another trade or if is he finished. Also, we will get some confirmation from a report that was out there online that both O’Reilly and Acciari will not only meet their new teammates in Toronto but that they would be available for the game against Montreal.

Looking at the clock it is 3:20 in the morning for me and I still have to edit and post this so that’s it thanks to everyone for reading and welcome to Toronto Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari.